Wednesday, October 31, 2012

On Forbes - MLS Knockout Round and MLS Cup Predictions

My latest post for Forbes uses my MLS playoff model to predict who will win the knockout round matches this week, as well as the likelihood of each team winning the MLS Cup. Everyone knows that San Jose is the favorite to win it all, but what's their actual likelihood of winning the Cup? Who else is likely to win it, and what is the range of likelihoods each team has at winning the Cup? You will have to click on the link above to find out.


Saturday, October 27, 2012

On Forbes - What is Champions League Worth To Arsenal?

Many people laughed when Arsene Wenger declared at last Thursday's AGM that "fourth place was like a trophy" for the Gunners. In this post I explain why Arsenal can only compete for third or fourth place given their player expenditures, and the impact not qualifying for the Champions League would have on the club.

Appearance on the Soccer Perspectives Podcast

This week I appeared on the Soccer Perspectives podcast to discuss my recent posts on how the MLS playoff format penalizes teams who participate in extra-league competitions like the CONCACAF Champions League and US Open Cup. My segment picks up around the 3 minute mark, and involves a 20 minute conversation with the podcast's host.

Monday, October 22, 2012

On Forbes - How the Two-Legged Conference Final Will Impact MLS Cup

My latest post for Forbes examines how the 2012 changes to the MLS playoffs conference finals format will impact the likelihood of certain teams winning an MLS Cup.  It uses data from the last nine MLS post season tournaments as input to a 10,000 run Monte Carlo simulation.  The results quantify just how much of a penalty teams that play additional competitive matches via US Open Cup and CONCACAF Champions League will pay in the revised playoff format.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

On Forbes - A Statistical Recap of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying, Round 3

Click here to see my latest for Forbes where I explain how much the US underperformed, how much Mexico, Costa Rica, and Honduras over performed, and make a few 4th round projections.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Nos Audietis Soccer Statistics Roundtable

This past Sunday I participated in a soccer statistics roundtable on the Nos Audietis podcast.  It was a great discussion with some of the top practitioners and writers of soccer statistics in the United States, and something I hope to be able to do again some day.  Have a listen if you're curious as to my views on the general topic, who I see as overperformers, or generally just want to hear the voice behind all of those posts you may (or may not) be reading.

On Forbes: How the MLS Playoff Format Punishes Ambitious Teams

My latest for Forbes looks at how the current MLS playoff format of using a two-legged aggregate goal format penalizes the teams within the league who look to build both their own and the league's stature by taking on the challenge of ancillary competitions like the US Open Cup and CONCACAF Champions League.

On Forbes: We’re Entering A Golden Age of Long Form Soccer Writing

In the last month alone there have been three different soccer quarterlies that were either launched or published their latest issue.  Learn how their publication suggests we're entering a golden age of long form soccer writing.

On Forbes: Premier League Leaders & Laggards

Another month of play has passed in the English Premier League, with a total of six games being played by the end of September.  One of my latest posts for Forbes looks at the emerging story lines. Everyone knows Chelsea is doing well, but who else is overachieving?  Conversely, who is underachieving besides those who are clearly at the bottom of the table?  Click on the link above to find out.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

On Forbes: More Than A Data Warehouse - An Interview With Infostrada Sports Group’s Simon Gleave

I recently sat down with Infostrada's Simon Gleave to discuss that group's coverage of soccer, how they deploy their statistics via multiple media platforms, and how their involvement in many different sports beyond soccer provides a value proposition not found in many other statistics groups.  Read my interview here.

On Forbes: What Soccer Can Learn From the NFL Referee Lockout

A few weeks ago it was my Seattle Seahawks that demonstrated the absurdity of the use of replacement referees within the NFL.  While some might have been laughing at the league, I suggested at the time that soccer can learn a thing or two from this experience.  With high definition television and access to video on the internet there is no excuse for soccer to not look at modernizing its officiating.  However, the sport and its leagues must be careful in the use of technology to avoid become more like a courtroom instead of a soccer pitch.

On Forbes: Are Happier Days Here Again for Arsenal?

It's time to catch my personal blog up on a few of my posts over at Forbes. This first one examines the change in attitude at Arsenal amongst its players and fans. After what seemed to be a tought year of two summers and a slog of a season, things are starting to look up around The Emirates. There were no rushed purchases at the end of the last transfer window, the RVP deal seems to have been handled as best it could, the club now seems to finally be able to move on from the expectations that were attached to the likes of van Persie and Cesc Fabregas, and the new additions seem to be producing goals and wins for the team. There may be no better embodiement of this new optimism than the perpetually smiling Santi Cazorla. Have a read at the link above to find out why Arsenal may have finally turned a corner towards happier times.