I am back after being on a very busy business trip in Europe for the last week. My first post-trip article at Forbes focuses on identifying the teams in the Euro 2012 tournament who most over and under performed versus pre-tournament expectations. I give Spain their due as what they've done over the last four years is simply amazing, but far better writers will certainly give them the ink they deserve. I chose instead to talk about the less obvious teams, explaining why Italy, Germany, Portugal, and even England outperformed expectations. I even turn my attention to the bottom of the table, where I provide numerical justification as to why Ukraine outperformed Poland, and why there's likely not another conclusion to be drawn than the Netherlands was the worse under performer of the tournament. Finally, I close with a quick evaluation of which of the four models examined - the Soccernomics Europe-specific model, Infostrada's Euro Club Index, ESPN's Soccer Power Index, and an aggregate of the three - was the most accurate at predicting group play outcomes.