Remember when I mentioned a month ago that the race for third and fourth was anything but over given Arsenal's closing form the last few seasons? With yet another draw, Arsenal continues to demonstrate why such a view was prescient. See the graph below for the latest on their 4-match running average PPM.
Only four matches ago the Gunners had a five point lead over Tottenham and Newcastle. That lead is now down to one and two points, respectively, heading into the final weekend of the season. While the Euro Club Index has the match outcome favoring Arsenal, recall that the Gunners haven't won since Match Day 33 on April 14th - nearly a month from the day that the finale will be played. It's worth considering how things may play out given the three outcomes available to the Arsenal match this weekend.
A loss at West Bromwich Albion next week opens the door for both Newcastle and Spurs to get through, leaving the Gunners in fifth. It would also keep their 4-match PPM at 0.75, which would be their worst finish to a season over the last three. If the Gunners were to miss out on Champions League play, either via finishing fifth or dropping to fourth and Chelsea winning the current tournament's final on May 19th, it would easily be considered the most disastrous late season performance of the Wenger Era.
A draw would ensure at least fourth table position for Arsenal, as Newcastle is too far behind in goal differential to close the gap if they were to tie Arsenal on points at the end of the season. If Tottenham were to concurrently win their finale, the Gunners would find themselves one point behind Tottenham at season's end and their Champions League aspirations at Chelsea's mercy. Their four-match PPM would rise slightly to 1.0, which would equal how they finished the prior two seasons.
A win seals the deal for third, with the summer worries isolated to squad depth and retaining Robin Van Persie's talents. A win would also raise their 4-match PPM to 1.5 - their highest finish in three years. However, this might be small consolation that would only serve to hide the fact that yet again the Gunners have run out of steam during the run-in. Under such circumstances they will have certainly backed themselves into next years Champions League based upon luck rather than skill.
It didn't have to be this way. Arsenal could have picked up a few points elsewhere during the run in to ensure they didn't need to win the final match to guarantee Champions League play next season. Yet for every dropped point they've dropped in the final eight matches, their rivals for third and fourth table position haven't been able to take full advantage of the opportunities. Thus, Arsenal finds themselves going into the final week of the season still in control of their own destiny. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good, although being good enough this weekend would ensure the Gunners don't need to be lucky elsewhere.
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I don't think that Arsenal's or Wenger's form to finish a season is inherent in the team's mentality, if there is something to be won.
ReplyDeleteIn the 2008-09 season, halfway, Arsenal were out of the Champions League places and to win a place, they had great form.
In the 2009-10 season, Arsenal ran out of players to challenge for the title and after their loss to Tottenham, their form slumped (it should be noted that the World Cup was coming up and Wenger was rotating players); however, on the final day of the season, Arsenal had to win to guarantee automatic qualification to the Champions League and they did.
In the 2010-11, Arsenal had a disastrous month and half in Feb-March where they lost everything and I think that was a special case where Wenger, in the last games, wasn't focused enough to win automatic Champions League qualification.
This season has reflected the past in that Arsenal and Wenger dominated in league form when there is something to play for. The cause of their recent slump is clear: they lost Arteta, their leader on-the-field. As Arteta was receiving treatment on the touchline, Wigan scored two goals. It wasn't so much a factor that Arsenal were a man down, but that the midfield had no organizer. The general rhythm of Arsenal's play in the Wigan, Chelsea and Stoke games was pedestrian. I didn't see the Norwich game; so, I don't know if Wenger has compensated his strategy for Arteta's absence yet.
I immediately laid Arsenal to finish outside of the top four after the Wigan game when I found out that Arteta was out for the season. It wasn't a bad bet considering how Tottenham choked at QPR and Aston Villa and Newcastle, at Wigan.
As an Arsenal fan, I fear for them on the last day. However, you mentioned luck: Arsenal are playing a team managed by the England manager who has the unenviable position of choosing and announcing the England squad for the Euros next Wednesday. If Capello cracked under the pressure of picking an England squad for a major tournament, how is Hodgson, unpopular in media circles, going to handle the pressure over the next week?
Gerard -
ReplyDeleteThank you for stopping by and leaving a comment.
I would agree with you that this season Arsenal has missed Arteta down the stretch. They've missed Wilshere all year. They missed key players in stretch runs the last two years. Perhaps that's why I always go back to the quote from Cesc in the original blog post linked at the beginning of this one. Arsenal seems to simply run out of steam the second half of the year, and faces a number of must win matches to pull things out in the end.
The challenge is that will not attract the top talent required for the club to compete in today's Premier League. I believe Wenger is a master at getting more out these players than nearly any other manager would, and this year may have been his master stroke. However, it's clear there's been a talent drain at the Emirates the last few seasons, with Cesc's commentary perhaps being the clearest indication of what happens when repeated stumbles at the end of the season happen. Arsenal seems to be hanging on by a threadbare set of starters, with the second team replacements being of far lower quality than the starting XI players they would replace. One key injury, and the play of the team seams to go awry more so than at other clubs.
Arsenal may not like the answer, but they have to spend money on players. Wenger's time is winding down - he won't be around to work his magic much longer. Arsenal needs to dump some of the strangulating contracts they have, get a number of new players, and address what seems to be a very thin squad once you get beyond the regular starters.