Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Update: An Analysis of Wenger and Why I Haven't Been Posting As Much

It's been nearly a month-and-a-half since I last posted to this, my own blog. It's not for lack of analysis and writing, but more that the writing and analysis has been concentrated on the Transfer Price Index (TPI) and their blog and competing with many other demands.

In case you missed it a couple of weeks ago, my latest post for the TPI was a comprehensive analysis of Arsene Wenger's performance versus the TPI data set using the three models I've created - the MSq£, the M£XI, and the m£XIR. The post took several weeks to build, with the monster graphic (2700 data points!!!) taking up most of my time. It's something I've wanted to do for a long time (Arsene is my email's namesake, after all), but it is something likely not to be repeated for other managers for a while. I've now applied such analysis to two of the three longest serving managers in the Premier League (Moyes, Wenger), and it will likely be some time before I turn to Alex Ferguson's tenure at Manchester United.

Looking ahead, I have been working on a new post for the TPI that creates alternative tables for each Premier League season based upon each club's performance versus the m£XIR model in each season. Essentially, it creates a table of teams for each season ranked from highest to lowest bang-for-the-Pound. It should be an interesting post, and while I certainly respect the results that produce a number of "alternative champions" I suspect that it may just be a poor consolation prize to supporters of clubs who didn't finish at the top of the actual table. Who knows... if I keep working on refining my TPI material I may just be lucky enough to have some of it included in an as-yet-unplanned second edition of Pay As You Play. That would allow me to realize one of my life goals - published author.

On my own blog, I will be providing a projection of 2011 MLS first (proper) round playoff predictions based upon my previous analysis of the impact of game differential on playoff results. Such a post should provide for some interesting discussion in the months ahead!

Finally, no matter how much I look ahead you may be asking why I have not been posting much recently. When I originally started this blog I was making 2-3 posts per week. Then I dialed it back to about 1 post per week to balance blogging with other interests (mainly exercising). Now I have dialed it back to about one post per month, albeit the posts are a good bit more dense with much more effort put in to the graphical presentations of data that accompany them. There are a multitude of reasons why the posting frequency has gone down, but it can be primarily chalked up to my need to study for a forthcoming engineering exam in October.

I've had my undergraduate degree in mechanical engineering for ten years now, and a masters degree in the same field for seven years. The final step in certifying my engineering "expertise" is to earn a professional engineer's license. To do so, one must work in the field for a number of years under another licensed professional engineer (I can check that box off) and pass an 8 hour exam on all things related to their specialty within mechanical engineering. Oh, and there is another 8 hour preliminary exam that I never took coming out of college, as most large companies don't require such certification (my first employer didn't, my second-and-current employer is in the minority that does). In summary, I must take that preliminary exam at the end of October, and then the professional engineer's exam at the end of April. Dredging up a number of concepts I haven't touched in seven years has required 10+ hours a week of studying since mid-July. Hence, I have minimal time to do analysis and write about it.

My hope is to get a month's respite after the October exam where I can have my free time back, and then not require so much studying in preparation for the professional engineer's exam given all the preparation I've undergone for the preliminary exam. If I succeed in that, I will have more time to analyze data and blog about it. I'll keep you posted!

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