In a recent post I showed how the leaders in the MLS golden boot race can be compared to the distribution of goal scorers in MLS's 15 year history. I was also able to show how good Edson Buddle was playing - in the top 1% of all goal scorers in MLS history. Here's an update on the Top 5 goal scorers nearly a month later.
Figure 1: 2010 Top 5 goal scorers as of June 2, 2010
Edson Buddle played one more match without notching another goal, so he has now fallen to the second percentile. On the opposite end, Dwayne De Rosario has scored a goal in each of his last two matches, slightly improving him to the fourth percentile. Juan Pablo Angel continues to fall, giving up eight percentile points from a month ago. Jeff Cunningham dropped out of the top 5, and was replaced by Alvaro Saborio who was MLS's player of the month for May. Chris Wondolowski has also regressed, giving up 13 percentile points.
The golden boot competition is shaping up to be a real contest between Edson Buddle and Dwayne De Rosario - all others are starting to regress towards historical averages. De Rosario will likely pass Buddle while he is playing for the United States in the World Cup, but if both can stay in top form we may get to see two of the best single season goal scorers duke it out for the boot.