On Forbes - Premier League Table Predictions (Post Match Day 11)

The Premier League has now completed 11 matches, which means they're slightly over a quarter of the way through the season.  I took a look at each team's odds of finishing in each table position, and wrote a post at Forbes based upon my findings.  Enjoy!

Sounder At Heart - Forget The Numbers: A View On The MLS Conference Semifinals

Two weeks ago I was asked to write a piece for Sounder at Heart on the Sounder's chances of making it to the MLS Cup and my overall thoughts on the team.  Previous to the post I had debuted my attempt at a predictive model that attempted to forecast who would make it to the end of the 2012 MLS Cup playoffs, which has been pretty much wrong this playoff cycle.  In that piece I explained why I felt the Sounders were a long shot to make and win the Cup, and yet why I very rarely listen to the numbers when I enjoy watching the Sounders.  Read the post if you want to see me take some very fair lumps and perhaps understand my love for the sport beyond the numbers.

On Forbes - MLS Knockout Round and MLS Cup Predictions

My latest post for Forbes uses my MLS playoff model to predict who will win the knockout round matches this week, as well as the likelihood of each team winning the MLS Cup. Everyone knows that San Jose is the favorite to win it all, but what's their actual likelihood of winning the Cup? Who else is likely to win it, and what is the range of likelihoods each team has at winning the Cup? You will have to click on the link above to find out.

 

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On Forbes - What is Champions League Worth To Arsenal?

Many people laughed when Arsene Wenger declared at last Thursday's AGM that "fourth place was like a trophy" for the Gunners. In this post I explain why Arsenal can only compete for third or fourth place given their player expenditures, and the impact not qualifying for the Champions League would have on the club.

Appearance on the Soccer Perspectives Podcast

This week I appeared on the Soccer Perspectives podcast to discuss my recent posts on how the MLS playoff format penalizes teams who participate in extra-league competitions like the CONCACAF Champions League and US Open Cup. My segment picks up around the 3 minute mark, and involves a 20 minute conversation with the podcast's host.

On Forbes - How the Two-Legged Conference Final Will Impact MLS Cup

My latest post for Forbes examines how the 2012 changes to the MLS playoffs conference finals format will impact the likelihood of certain teams winning an MLS Cup.  It uses data from the last nine MLS post season tournaments as input to a 10,000 run Monte Carlo simulation.  The results quantify just how much of a penalty teams that play additional competitive matches via US Open Cup and CONCACAF Champions League will pay in the revised playoff format.

On Forbes - A Statistical Recap of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying, Round 3

Click here to see my latest for Forbes where I explain how much the US underperformed, how much Mexico, Costa Rica, and Honduras over performed, and make a few 4th round projections.